Issue 27: Focus On Donella Meadows and Systems Thinking

“There is too much bad news to justify complacency. There is too much good news to justify despair.” - Dana Meadows

Welcome to the latest newsletter. It’s not a holiday or Christmas-themed edition, which maybe will come as a relief to many. We are once again focusing in this issue on a single person: one of the pioneers of systems thinking, Dr. Donella ‘Dana’ Meadows.

We believe that, when confronting the metacrisis and its various facets such as climate collapse and loss of biodiversity, the kind of systems thinking that Donella Meadows was exploring is vitally important; realizing that every part of a system can potentially affect every other, and that there are different levels at which the system can be affected, some having more impact than others.

The core goal of The Elevator is to investigate whether a shift at the deepest level, that of our core ontology, our way of seeing and understanding the world, is feasible, and how the world might appear—and indeed be—different, if enough of us collectively made ‘The Flip’ (in the words of Jeffrey Kripal) to a consciousness-first paradigm, as opposed to a materialist one. In this way we seek to intervene at the deepest, and most impactful, leverage point, and are deeply inspired by Meadows' work and that of other systems thinkers.

Limits To Growth

Over fifty years ago, a team of systems scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) produced a landmark study commissioned by the Club of Rome called "The Limits to Growth." Led by Donella H. Meadows, along with her husband Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers, and William W. Behrens III, the team used computer modeling (itself a rarity in those days) to examine the long-term consequences of exponential economic and population growth on a finite planet.

The results were stark: if we continue down our current path, “within a century” we will eventually exhaust our resources, reach a point where growth is no longer possible, and enter a catastrophic collapse. Looking at the world today, the book already seems uncannily accurate. It’s undeniable that we are already reaching those limits, and indeed have overshot them in many cases.

Their conclusions in 1972 were not mere speculative predictions, but rather careful analyses of the data they had. They presented four scenarios, each with a different assumption about the future. Two scenarios predicted collapse, and two predicted stability. But what was notable was not the results themselves, but the fact that the collapse scenarios were not outliers – they were the likeliest outcomes based on the data.

And yet, thirty years on, we are still ignoring the warning. We have not found ways to reduce our population growth or consumption levels. We have not invested sufficiently in sustainable technologies or conservation efforts. We have simply kept on growing, fueled by cheap oil and credit.

“There are no separate systems. The world is a continuum. Where to draw a boundary around a system depends on the purpose of the discussion.”

So Who Was Donella Meadows?

Donella ‘Dana’ Meadows

Donella H. Meadows, also known as Dana Meadows, was an American environmental scientist, educator, and writer. Her groundbreaking work in systems thinking and dynamic modeling has inspired generations of scientists, activists, and thinkers to tackle some of the world's most pressing problems.

Meadows was born on March 13, 1941, in Elgin, Illinois, and grew up loving science and the natural world. She earned her B.A. in chemistry from Carleton College in 1963 and her Ph.D. in biophysics from Harvard University in 1968. After completing her education, Meadows went on to become a leading figure in the then-nascent field of systems thinking, a discipline that aims to understand complex systems and their behavior over time.

Meadows was awarded the MacArthur Fellowship in 1994 and became a leading voice in the fields of environmental science, economics, and policy.

“You may be able to fool the voters, but not the atmosphere.”

Her work on systems thinking revolutionized the way we approach complex problems. The groundbreaking book, "Thinking in Systems: A Primer," provides a concise and accessible introduction to this essential tool for thinking about ways to look at ‘wicked problems’ and global predicaments.

Leverage Points

Systems thinking emphasizes finding high-leverage points, “places to intervene in a system”, where small changes can lead to significant and enduring impacts. This approach helps us understand how elements affect each other in a system and allows us to identify key areas to focus on for solving complex problems. With systems thinking, we can see patterns and relationships that otherwise go unseen, and make informed decisions that drive impactful change. Meadows' work has shown us that even small changes, if applied at the correct leverage point, can have profound effects on the world around us.

This video explains the general concept of leverage points, and the points themselves:

Leverage Points - Places to Intervene in a System

A core concept in systems thinking is the difference between stocks and flows. Stocks represent stored quantities, while flows represent the rates of change. This video is an easy to understand primer on the core concepts of systems thinking:

In A World of Systems

“Since the Earth is finite, and we will have to stop expanding sometime, should we do it before or after nature’s diversity is gone?”

The power of systems thinking extends way beyond the environmental arena. It can be applied to any complex system, from business to government to community development. By using this approach, we can identify leverage points and create positive change. As Meadows put it, "If you understand the dynamics (behavior over time) of stocks and flows, you understand a good deal about the behavior of complex systems."

Systems thinking encourages us to look beyond individual components and examine the relationships and patterns that underlie complex systems. By using this approach, we can create a more sustainable future and tackle global challenges with greater effectiveness.

“A system is a set of things – people, cells, molecules, or whatever – interconnected in such a way that they produce their own pattern of behavior over time. [...] The system, to a large extent, causes its own behavior!”

Paradigm Shifts

Our Position Paper for The Elevator, which you can download here, includes this quote from Meadows’ book ‘Leverage Points: Places to Intervene in a System’:

The ancient Egyptians built pyramids because they believed in an afterlife. We build skyscrapers, because we believe that space in downtown cities is enormously valuable. (Except for blighted spaces, often near the skyscrapers, which we believe are worthless.) Whether it was Copernicus and Kepler showing that the earth is not the center of the universe, or Einstein hypothesizing that matter and energy are interchangeable, or Adam Smith postulating that the selfish actions of individual players in markets wonderfully accumulate to the common good, people who have managed to intervene in systems at the level of paradigm have hit a leverage point that totally transforms systems.

You could say paradigms are harder to change than anything else about a system, and therefore this item should be lowest on the list, not second-to-highest. But there’s nothing physical or expensive or even slow in the process of paradigm change. In a single individual it can happen in a millisecond. All it takes is a click in the mind, a falling of scales from eyes, a new way of seeing.

While it is difficult to change the underlying paradigm of society as a whole, any society is made up of individuals. Those individuals can undergo a paradigm shift at any moment. When enough individuals have made a shift, society as a whole will follow.

The Legacy

The Donella Meadows Project, which she founded, continues to preserve her legacy and make her work widely available. The project's mission is to manage the intellectual property rights related to her published work, provide and maintain a comprehensive archive of her writings online, and develop new resources and educational materials.

Meadows' work and legacy serve as a reminder of the importance of ‘thinking in systems’ and sustainability in addressing the complex challenges facing our world. Her impact will surely be felt for many generations.